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DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 01/23 06:15
Steady Cash Cattle Trade Expected
The cattle complex moved to new contract highs across the board Wednesday.
Bullish traders stepped into the market, buying aggressively as steady prices
are is expected to dominate this week's cash market. Hogs showed some
follow-through selling but turned higher after the liquidation subsided.
Robin Schmahl
DTN Contributing Analyst
Cattle: Steady Futures: Mixed Live Equiv: $242.75 -$0.35*
Hogs: Lower Futures: Mixed Lean Equiv: $95.85 -$0.65**
*Based on the formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer
revenue. (The Live Cattle Equiv. The index has been updated to depict recent
changes in live cattle weights and grading percentages.)
** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue.
GENERAL COMMENTS:
Cattle futures exploded Wednesday as buyers piled into the market. The
recent weakness was negated and then some with all contracts for live and
feeder cattle setting new contract highs. The February live cattle contract
closed above $200. Some early cash trades this week indicated cash could trade
steady with last week. Traders took the discount futures held to cash out of
the market. Traders may begin to look ahead to the Cattle on Feed report to be
released on Friday, but this may leave futures mixed with limited liquidation
ahead of the report. The Cattle on Feed report average estimate for on-feed as
of Jan. 1 at 99.8% of a year ago. Placements in December at 101.8% and marketed
in December at 101.3%. Placements are expected to be the wild card with the
range of estimates from 98.8% to 107.1%. Boxed beef prices were lower with
choice down $0.03 and select down $1.56. Weekly export sales are delayed until
Friday.
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